Monday, May 31, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Logical Inference in Science
A certain protein is absent in the brain, but then becomes present at a certain point of brain development and then disappears when it is done. A scientist would then ask, what is happening at this stage of development?
Perhaps a group of cells diverges into two different kinds of cells at this stage. The scientist might then hypothesize: this protein is probably the case of this divergence. Then he could devised an experiment to test the hypothesis.
When the brain reaches this stage of development, the scientist could remove this protein and see what happens. If the divergence does not take place, then probably the protein is the cause of the divergence.
But what if the absence of the protein affects something else, which is the real cause of the divergence? The scientist can devise other experiments to isolate the protein as the cause.
For example, instead of removing the protein, the scientist could increase it and see what happens. Perhaps instead of diverging all of the cells turn into other kinds of cells. The scientist could also focus on the part of the cell that receives the protein. If that part of the cell is de-activated, and then the divergence does not take place, then that would be additional evidence that this protein is the cause of the divergence.
The reliability of the results would increase by publishing the results, permitting other scientists to re-duplicate the results, and also to suggest other possible causes to be tested.
So scientists can determine with greater and greater certainty that the protein is the cause of the divergence, by increasing the number of experiments that point to this protein as the cause in a variety of different ways. The conclusion would have a very high degree of certainty--beyond a reasonable doubt.
So how can the thought process be represented in logical form?
1. If x is followed regularly and predictably by y, then x is probably the cause of y
2. Divergence into two kinds of cells follows regularly and predictably the presence of this protein.
3. Therefore, this protein is probably the cause of the divergence.
1. If y does not happen when x is absent, then x is probably the cause of y.
2. Divergence into two kinds of cells does not happen when this protein is absent.
3. Therefore, this protein is probably the cause of the divergence.
etc.
So what seems to be happening is that the conclusion is made more certain by multiplying the number of proofs, the amount of evidence.
This is not so much the combining of evidence, but it takes the definition of what it means to be a cause, and then tests to see to what extent a certain substance fits this definition.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Monday, May 24, 2010
Buying land from Indians
"Every history of Rye ... starts with three Greenwich men, Thomas Studwell, John Coe and Peter Disbrow, buying Manursing Island from the Indians in 1660 and starting to farm. A fourth, John Budd, joined them a year later, buying other sections of what was to become Rye ....
[Studwell] was about 60 when he bought the land on Manursing Island, signing with an 'X' on the purchase from the Indians .... With Coe and Disbrow, he acquired more land from the Indians on the mainland and west into what is now Harrison.....
[John Coe's] name on the 1660 purchase from the Native American Shenowell and others is spelled Coo....
Apparently [Peter Disbrow] was in land negotiations with the Indians as early as January of 1660, six months before the purchase of Manursing Island ....
[John] budd appears in Rye in 1661 with a purchase of a large amount of land from the Indians, known thereafter as Budd's Neck .... The deed of purchase from the Indians was later confirmed by a patent....
For more, see Robert Bolton, Jr., 'A History of the County of Westchester' ... and Charles W. Baird, 'History of Rye,' 1871."
Paul Rheingold, "Rye's Founders," The Rye Record, May 21, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Monday, May 3, 2010
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
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